Merrill Lynch Says Oil Could Fall to $25

Oil prices are likely to keep falling until well into next year and could reach $25 a barrel before recovering, U.S. bank Merrill Lynch has said.

In a research report published on Thursday, it said oil prices should begin to rally in the second half of 2009.

Merrill Lynch recently cut its forecast for the average price of U.S. crude oil futures and North Sea Brent crude oil to $50 a barrel from a previous estimate for both crudes of $90.

"With demand vanishing across all key oil consuming regions, benchmark crude oil prices continue to plummet," it said. "In the short-run, market participants will focus on both OPEC and perhaps even non-OPEC producer responses to balance the market."

"A temporary drop below $25 is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC production cuts are required," it said.

"In our view, oil prices could find a trough at the end of Q1 2009 or early Q2 2009 with the seasonal slowdown in demand. Then, as economic activity starts to strengthen, we see oil prices posting a modest recovery in the second half of 2009."

Oil prices hit a peak above $147 a barrel in July but have fallen more than $100 since then as the severity of the global economic downturn has become clear.

Merrill Lynch said a combination of high oil prices and high leverage had proven dangerous for the global economy. "On October 1, we lowered our average crude oil price forecast in 2009 to $90 per barrel based on a global GDP growth forecast of 3 percent. Since then, our economists have revised their 2009 global GDP growth forecast down to 1.3 percent, a scenario consistent with a global recession.

"As a result, we are now lowering our average WTI and Brent crude oil price forecast to $50 per barrel for 2009."

It said the major downside risk to its price forecast would be a revision of economic growth assumptions for China, which are currently at 8.6 percent for next year.

"In the short-run, global oil demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations," it said. "We now expect an outright contraction in global oil demand in 2009."

Copyright 2008 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

Miraculous medicinal uses of Zamzam

By: Dr. Qazi Shaikh Abbas Borhany

Published in "The Weekly Mag", April 16, 2005, Pakistan , & in the Yemen Times.

It was the earnest need of the child that mother of Ismail Nabi ran in search of water in the vicinity of Makkah. Under divine instruction, Jibreel (A.S.), struck the site of the land with his heels, and perpetual source of healing Zamzam was discovered. Zamzam was considered sacred earlier to Islam amongst Jews as well as Christians too. Afterwards, due to the religious bigotry they ignored it. It has simultaneously three abilities, to quench the thirst and removes the feeling of hunger. The next ability of Zamzam, as per traditions, is its numerous and enormous medicinal benefits.

·Rasulullah(S.A.W.A.) used to carry Zamzam in water-bags to Madinah. He used to sprinkle it over the sick and offered them to drink it with the intention of cure, (Al Silsilat al Saheeyah, 883, Qaherah).

·According to the Hadith literature "Zamzam, is a Barakat, a food that satisfies and a cure for the sick". (1-Abizar, Muslim, 4/1922; 2-. Al Tayaalisi (61)).

·Zamzam is considered to help students in the correct pronunciation of Arabi in non-Arab region.

·It was Abizar who expressed his personal experience to his Lord, Rasulullah(S.A.W.A.),while he questioned about his foodstuff. He informed: I had spent forty long days with Zamzam. I do not feel any kind of weakness or hunger nor do I become slim." Rasulullah(S.A.W.A.) declared: "Verily, it is blessed, it is food that nourishes." (Muslim, 2473).

·According to the Tradition narrated by Jabir bin Abdullah al Ansari "With whatever (legal) intention one can drink it his wish fulfills". "It is a cure for a numerous diseases by the order of Allah. So you should have the intention of what you want to gain by drinking this water".

·Abbas informed: "Before the dawn of Islam, Zamzam was known as Shabaah (satisfaction).When he drank from Zamzam, he recited this Doa: "O Allah! I ask you for beneficial knowledge, plentiful provision and healing from every disease."

·It is applied to the eyes to brighten the sight.

A Yemeni Shaikh was fond of reading Quraan from a small Mashaf. As he became old he found that he couldn't read easily from that Mashaf because his sight is getting weak. He heard about the Zamzam and its advantages. He came to Haj and drank from Zamzam. His vision improved and he started reading from that small Mashaf easily and without any sight problem. He achieved what he wanted because he was confident of that and had deep faith in.

Yusria Abdel Rahman al Harazi, a Yemeni lady narrated that she was affected by a crimson ulcer, in eye. She had severe headache, which cannot be cured by medicine. She was about to become blind in the affected eye. She consulted famous eye specialist there, who advised her, an injection, which will stop the headache but will dysfunction the affected eye and consequently she will loose the sight. Yusria got frightened but confident of the mercy of Allah. She intended to perform Umrah and begs to Allah to cure her. She came to Makkah and performed Tawaaf and washed her eyes with Zamzam. When she came back to the hotel, she found that her affected eyes were cured and the crimson ulcer disappeared.

Dr. Faruq Antar, tells his own story. He says: that he had a stone in his ureter and the doctor could not remove or destroy it without operation. But he postponed the operation two times. Meanwhile he performed Umrah and offered Doa to cure him without undergoing operation. He drank Zamzam water and offered two Rakaat. Then he felt a benching in his ureter and hurried up to the toilet and by the grace of Allah he saw the miracle. The stone came out and he was cured without operation. The doctors who were treating Dr. Faruq were surprised for this sacred treatment. ("Scientific Miracles in Islam & Sunnat Nabawiyah" By: Mohammed Kamil Abdel Samad, Beirut ).

Layla Al Helw, a Moroccan lady says: "9 years ago, I found out that I had a cancer. I was not a religious so decided to commit suicide, but it was destined that my illness became cause of my emancipation and source of inspiration a lot of people like me. I went to Belgium for advance treatment. Several doctors recommended my husband that removal of my breast is indispensable. I requested the doctors to suggest another medication course. As per suggestion, I followed the treatment and it did not cause any serious side effects, which made me pleased. I Thought; may be the doctors were wrong and I didn't have cancer. However, after about six months, I started losing weight quickly, my color started to change and I had a continuous pain. My Moroccan doctor advised me to go back to Belgium , so I followed advice. Belgian doctors told my husband that the disease has spread all over my body and they have no hope in my case. They said, "You better take your wife back to her home so that she dies peacefully at home!" We went to France for treatment. The answer was same as the Belgian doctors. Finally, we decided to enter the hospital to remove my breasts through surgery. However, my husband thought of something that we forgot. He suddenly asked me to perform Umrah. I bought a Quraan from Paris and we left for Umrah. I was very happy because it was the first time for me to visit the Kabah. When I entered the Haram and first saw the Kabah, I cried a lot because; I regretted on all my past years I spent, without Salaat. I repented: "O Lord! The doctors were unable to cure me. You have the cure for every disease; all the doors are locked in front of me. I have nothing left to seek except your door, so please, O my Lord! Don't close your door on me." I kept on Doa while I was offering Tawaaf. I asked Allah not to disappoint me or send me back with empty hands.
I went to the scholars there and requested them to guide me to the book of Doa that can be easy to read. They guided me to read as much as I can from the Quraan. They also advised to take a lot of "Tadhalloo" from Zamzam (Tadhalloo is to drink a lot of water until the water reaches your ribs). They also advised me to do Zikar of Allah a lot and recite Salawaat. In Kabah, I felt pleasant peace and relieved. I requested my husband to allow me to stay inside the Haram, which he granted. In Kabah, there were some Misri and Turkish sisters beside me, who saw me crying a lot. They asked me about the reason. I informed them that I have cancer and while found no place for cure I came here with full conviction. They also accompanied me and we spent time in Tawaaf, Ibadat and Tilawat. Upper part of my body was swollen and filled with pus. Those sisters recommended me to pour Zamzam on affected area for cure, but due to the fear of unbearable pain, I did not follow their advice. On the fifth day, my friends insisted that I should pour Zamzam on my upper part of the body for Shifa, at the beginning I refused, but I felt something forcing me to do it. I slowly started trying to go through the parts, later I forced my hands on my upper part and went through my breasts. Something unbelievable happened. There was no swelling, no blood and no pus. I couldn't believe what I felt. I went through my upper part again, and it was true. I shivered.

I cherished that Allah has full command to do anything what so ever. I asked one of my friends to touch my body with her hand and look for the swelling, she did. And they all spontaneously shouted, Allahu Akbar, Allahu Akbar. I ran towards my husband in the hotel. I told him of what happened and he couldn't believe it. Tears rolled down from the eyes of both of us. He said, do you know that the doctors told me! That you shall die within a period of three weeks only? I said, all the fortune is within the Hands and Will of Allah. No one knows what the future is holding for us except for Him. We stayed in the Kabah for one week. I paid thanks to Him for His uncountable Graces. Then we rushed to Masjid al Nabawi and performed Ziyarat. Afterwards we flew to France and meet our doctors. They were surprised and became nearly crazy. "Are you the same person?" They asked me. I was very proud to say, with out any doubt yes and this is my husband. We have returned from the house of Allah. They admitted that mine is a very strange and unbelievable case. They examined me again, and found nothing. I read Sirat al Nabi and cried a lot. I cried regretting all what I have missed in my past life. I missed the love of Allah and His Rasul(S.A.W.A.). I cried for the time I have wasted away. I ask Allah to forgive me, my husband and all Muslims. (Translated from the Arabi: "Those Who Repented To Allah" by: Ibrahim Abdullah Al Hazemy, Morocco ).

The Writer is Attorney At Law & Religious Scholar

The Surface Exchange Process

Although solar radiation is partially absorbed by the atmosphere it is actually the transfer of heat and evaporation of moisture (latent energy) from the underlying surfaces that are the major sources of energy which drive atmospheric circulation. Over the oceans there is a lot of latent energy and the important factor is wind speed which regulates the evaporation rate. Over land it is both wind speed and surface characteristics, such as soil moisture, which play a part.

The way solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth's surface depends primarily on whether the surface is land or sea. Over land, the radiation is absorbed at the surface and it moves slowly through the earth beneath it. There is very little change in temperature, at a depth of a few metres, throughout the year. The surface, therefore, warms rapidly with increased radiation. Over winter, the land surface temperature cools somewhat because of the minimal amount of solar radiation.

In contrast, solar radiation over the oceans is absorbed and penetrates the surface layers of the oceans. The water has quite a high thermal capacity and because of the wind, any extra heat is distributed across the upper layer. As a result of this the sea surface temperature responds a lot slower to the different solar radiation at different times of the year.

Land and water that are next to each other heat and cool at different rates because of the different processes involved with absorbing solar radiation and the release of longwave radiation. In the summer, land becomes relatively hotter and then cools in the winter causing temperature and pressure gradients across boundaries areas.

Air will blow inland from the cooler ocean as the land heats in summer and will blow toward the sea as land cools during winter. The distribution of land and seas has a significant impact on global climate and its seasonal cycle because of the different responses the surface makes to varying solar radiation.

The annual average sea level pressure and wind distribution over the oceans is seen in the image below, although they do not reflect seasonal variability. However, there are clear indications of dominant processes in the Asia-Pacific region. In the Pacific there is mean high pressure in the subtropics of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and in the Indian Ocean there is average high pressure and anticyclonic winds in the Southern Hemisphere, but this is not reflected in the Northern Hemisphere.

Breaking News: Earthquake in Japan

2008.03.07 19:06:58

*Eastern Japan Hit By 5.3 Magnitude Earthquake - Kyodo

fromDJ Newswires

Batu yang dibawa ababil = meteor?

Peristiwa ababil itu, bagi sejumlah kalangan tergolong sebagai mukjizat sehingga mau ditafsirkan sebagai apa berdasarkan nalar manusia, kadang terasa sulit..

Namun jika mau dirasionalkan, ada dua kemungkinan penyebabnya : letusan gunung berapi atau tumbukan meteor. Tetapi letusan gunung berapi bisa dikesampingkan, mengingat meskipun Wadi Muhassir (tempat peristiwa ababil itu terjadi) berada di dekat zona kelurusan vulkanik Makkah-Madinah- Nufud yang menjadi tempat berdirinya lapangan vulkanik terbesar di Arabia, yakni Harrah Rahat, karakter letusan al-harrah ini tidaklah eksplosif seperti gunung-gunung api di Indonesia. Jadi peluangnya menyemburkan lapili dan bom vulkanis ke jarak jauh adalah kecil. Harrah Rahat itu tipe letusannya efusif, dan jika dilihat dari skalanya, dia jauh lebih menggidikkan dibanding Merapi karena sanggup memuntahkan lava basalt dalam jumlah teramat besar (sampai 0,5 km kubik dalam sekali letusan, bandingkan dengan Merapi 2006 yang 'hanya' 8 juta meter kubik). So letusan Harrah Rahat berdampak pada daerah yang luas, sementara peristiwa ababil itu sendiri hanya terjadi di Wadi Muhassir saja, yang berada di perbatasan Mudzalifah-Mina, sejauh 8 km dari Ka'bah.

Kemungkinan yang tersisa tinggallah tumbukan meteor. Skenario tumbukan yang terjadi, dalam pendapat saya, adalah kombinasi antara peristiwa Tunguska 1908, Sikhote-Alin 1947 dan Tagish Lake 2000. Secara garis besar saja, peristiwa ababil kemungkinan besar disebabkan oleh jatuhnya asteroid/meteoroid Besi (diameter 10 m) yang dihentakkan keluar dari orbitnya semula oleh gravitasi Jupiter ketika melewati Kirkwood gap di Main Belt Asteroids. Ia jatuh ke Bumi dengan kecepatan 17,5 km/detik, dari azimuth 315º dan ketinggian 20º bila dilihat dari Wadi Muhassir. Asteroid ini berubah menjadi bolide yang sama terangnya dengan Bulan purnama, untuk kemudian terpecah belah di ketinggian 12-an km dan terfragmentasi secara serempak di ketinggian 8-an km sehingga melepaskan energi kinetiknya sebagai ledakan berkekuatan 'hanya' 0,06 kiloton TNT. Ledakan ini kecil (hanya setara 60 kg dinamit saja), sehingga tidak memproduksi radiasi panas ataupun gelombang kejut yang berdampak serius terhadap grund zero dibawahnya, ataupun terhadap Makkah. Fragmentasi serempak ini memproduksi butiran2 kerikil, sedikitnya 3 juta butir, yang kemudian jatuh menghantam wadi Muhassir pada area seluas 1,4 km persegi berbentuk ellips. Dengan asumsi hanya 80 % anggota pasukan yang terkena kerikil (dari jumlah keseluruhan 60.000 orang), maka tiap orang (rata-rata) dihantam 62 butir kerikil berdiameter 2,5 cm yang melesat secepat 300 m/detik. Padahal 1 kerikil yang secepat peluru itu saja sudah mematikan.

Untuk penggambarannya, saya sertakan grafis sederhana tahapan kejadian tersebut. Pemodelan ini dikerjakan berdasarkan persamaan2 matematis yang dirangkum Collins dkk (Collins. 2005. Earth Impact Effects Program : A Web-based Computer Program for Calculating The Regional Environmental Consequences of a Meteoroid Impact on Earth. Meteoritics & Planetary Science vol. 40 (2005) no. 6 p.817 - 840.

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Kenapa kendaraan sering mogok di lintasan KA?

Mengapa jika mesin kendaraan bermotor tiba-tiba mati
di lintasan rel kereta api sulit dihidupkan lagi?<p>

Ternyata itu disebabkan adanya pengaruh gesekan antara
roda kereta dengan relnya. "Jadi, bukan semata-mata
karena sopirnya gugup sehingga tidak bisa menghidupkan
mesin kendaraannya, " kata Dr Ir. Djoko Sungkono,
kepala Laboratorium Motor Bakar Teknik Mesin Institut
Teknologi Surabaya (ITS).<p>

Selama ini sering terjadi kendaraan bermotor tiba-tiba
mati mesinnya saat melintas di atas rel kereta api.
Itu terjadi terutama ketika ada kereta yang mau lewat.
Pengendaranya kesulitan menghidupkan kembali mesin
kendaraannya itu. Akibatnya, kendaraan bermotor itu
ditabrak kereta dalam hitungan sekian puluh detik
berikutnya.<p>

Kasus terbaru adalah seperti yang dialami Rektor dan
Pembantu Rektor III Universitas Islam Darul Ulum
Lamongan. Keduanya tewas karena mobil yang sedang
melintas rel dihantam kereta api. Djoko lalu
mengingatkan, jika mesin mobil tiba-tiba mati di atas
rel, maka hendaknya penumpangnya segera keluar dan
mendorongnya . Jika tidak, akan sangat membahayakan
jika kereta segera lewat. Dan jangan berusaha
menghidupkan mesin! Yang anda lakukan adalah, keluar!
dan mendorongnya! Kalopun anda gak sempat mendorong,
setidaknya anda sudah berada diluar kendaraan dan bisa
sewaktu-waktu lari menghindar.<p>

Mengapa mesin bermotor susah dihidupkan? Kata Djoko,
terjadi impedansi yang ditimbulkan oleh pergesekan
roda kereta api dan relnya. Dan, impedansi itu yang
cukup untuk mengakibatkan mesin mobil yang mati sulit
menyala kembali. Kejadian itu terutama berpengaruh
pada mobil atau kendaraan yang berbahan bakar bensin,
meskipun kendaraan berbahan bakar solar juga ada yang
terpengaruh. "Pada kendaraan yang berbahan bakar
bensin, starternya digerakkan oleh dinamo," paparnya.
Dari dinamo ini dihasilkan medan magnet yang
selanjutnya menggerakkan mesin mobil. Djoko
mengatakan, hal tersebut tidak jadi masalah bila mesin
mobil tersebut tidak mati. Namun bila mesin tersebut
mati maka akan sulit untuk dihidupkan lagi. Medan
impedansi tersebut tidak diperlukan jarak yang dekat
untuk itu. Hal tersebut sudah mulai dapat berpengaruh
ketika kereta api masih berjarak 1,5 km lokasi
lintasan di mana kendaraan bermotor itu melintas
rel.<p>

Jadi langkah terbaik yang harus dilakukan : dorong
kendaraan (kalau mobil, segera keluar dari kendaraan)
anda dari rel kereta baru setelah itu coba hidupkan
kembali mesin mobil anda.<p>

Hery Darmawan
SAP Technology Consultant
Mobile: +971507128157

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